Puell Multiple
Mining economics as a macro market timing tool
What is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple measures the daily issuance of Bitcoin (mined BTC × current price) relative to its 365-day moving average. Created by analyst David Puell, it captures whether miners — the structural sellers of the network — are earning above-average or below-average revenue. Miners must sell BTC to cover operational costs (electricity, hardware), making their revenue cycle a key market dynamic.
How to Interpret It
A Puell Multiple above 4.0 means miners are earning 4× their annual average daily revenue — they are incentivized to sell aggressively, creating structural sell pressure. This has historically coincided with cycle tops. A Puell Multiple below 0.5 means miners are earning half their annual average — many are at or below profitability, creating capitulation and shakeout of weak miners. This has preceded cycle bottoms.
Usage Examples
Bitcoin's 2017 peak (Dec), 2019 local top (June), and 2021 top (Nov) all occurred while the Puell Multiple was elevated above 3.0. The 2018, 2020 (March), and 2022 bottoms all featured Puell below 0.5. The halving events directly compress the Puell Multiple by cutting daily issuance in half overnight, often triggering the accumulation phase of the next bull market.
Market Context
The Puell Multiple is exclusively a PRO indicator in ChainCheck101 due to its specialized on-chain data requirements. It is most powerful as a macro cycle timer: use it to identify the broad regime (Puell < 0.7 = accumulation zone, Puell > 3.0 = danger zone) and then use technical crossover signals within that regime for precise entry and exit timing. The combination of Puell + MVRV creates the most complete on-chain valuation framework available.
See it in action
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