MVRV Ratio
On-chain valuation: is Bitcoin cheap or expensive right now?
What is the MVRV Ratio?
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares Bitcoin's current market capitalization (Market Value) to its Realized Capitalization — the sum of all BTC valued at the price they last moved on-chain. Realized Cap represents the aggregate cost basis of all BTC holders. MVRV above 1.0 means the average holder is in profit; below 1.0 means average loss.
How to Interpret It
MVRV above 3.5 has historically corresponded to cycle tops — the average holder is sitting on 250%+ unrealized gains and is under extreme psychological pressure to sell. MVRV below 1.0 has corresponded to cycle bottoms — capitulation complete, underwater holders have largely exited. The zone between 1.0 and 2.5 is the "accumulation and growth" range where strong hands dominate.
Usage Examples
Every major Bitcoin cycle top since 2013 occurred while MVRV was above 3.0. The 2021 peak at ~$69K saw MVRV reach 3.9. The 2022 bottom near $16K saw MVRV dip below 1.0 for the first time since March 2020. Investors who combined MVRV below 1.2 with any bullish technical signal captured generational entry points.
Market Context
MVRV is a PRO indicator in ChainCheck101 because it requires on-chain data processing and represents the most sophisticated valuation framework available in crypto. When MVRV is in the 1.0–2.0 range and a crossover buy signal triggers, it represents maximum risk/reward alignment. MVRV in the 3.5+ range should cause you to tighten stop losses regardless of other signals.
See it in action
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